Category Archives: Sundries

Posts on sundry matters of life the universe and everything: Culture, Environment, Life, Politics & Government, Science, Social Science and Society, Technology etc.

Pause and re-group

On Saturday afternoon my wife’s brother-in-law passed away. He had been in poor health for some time and his passing was not unexpected. Nevertheless when these things happen it is not easy. My wife had been to visit that day, about an hour’s drive away.

The funeral will be early next week, when we also have some overseas visitors coming to stay for a few days.

I’m going to take a little time to pause and re-group, so I hope to be back to posting towards the end of next week. I’ll comment as required and do a Saturday salon post, but I’d rather let the rest of the world go by for a bit.

I’m planning to do a little work on some travelogue posts on our recent Red Centre holiday. As a foretaste you might like this photo of the full moon at Purnie Bore in the Simpson Desert seen through the desert grass:

DSCN0585_500

We were very lucky and truly blessed.

See you soon!

Saturday salon 6/9

voltaire_230

An open thread where, at your leisure, you can discuss anything you like, well, within reason and the Comments Policy. Include here news and views, plus any notable personal experiences from the week and the weekend.

For climate topics please use the most recent Climate clippings.

The gentleman in the image is Voltaire, who for a time graced the court of Frederick II of Prussia, known as Frederick the Great. King Fred loved to talk about the universe and everything at the end of a day’s work. He also used the salons of Berlin to get feedback in the development of public policy.

Fred would only talk in French; he regarded German as barbaric. Here we’ll use English.

The thread will be a stoush-free zone. The Comments Policy says:

The aim [of this site] is to provide a venue for people to contribute and to engage in a civil and respectful manner.

Here are a few bits and pieces that came to my attention last week.

1. Paul Kelly’s new tome

Richard Fidler talked to Paul Kelly about his new book Triumph and Demise. All of the main players talked to Kelly on the record, which they haven’t done for anyone else. In all other cases I know at least one or the other of them wouldn’t talk or wouldn’t talk on the record.

I’m hoping to do a full-length post. Kelly mentions at least one incident I didn’t know about. There was a conversation between Rudd and Gillard on the verandah of Kirribilli in January 2010. That was where Gillard told Rudd she thought he should forget about climate change for a time, so it supports the “She made me do it” thesis. Kelly will have none of that. He says Rudd ignored Gillard’s advice often enough and has to take responsibility.

At that meeting Kelly says Gillard formed the opinion that Rudd was in no shape mentally to lead the party to an election.

The book looks like a ‘must read’.

2. The Searchers

The Searchers is the name of a 1956 film which this review suggests is “considered by many to be a true American masterpiece of filmmaking, and the best, most influential, and perhaps most-admired film of director John Ford.”

Certainly it did not do well when it was made, but influenced film makers such as Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg, Jean-Luc Godard, Wim Wenders, and George Lucas. In a recent survey it was rated the seventh best film of all time. Now Glenn Frankel has written an amazing book called The Searchers: the Making of an American Legend. The book tells you everything you’d want to know about the incident it was based on, the Alan Le May novel, Frank Nugent’s script, about John Wayne, John Ford and the making of the film itself as though he was there on the set.

He also unravels the grisly truth about the story of how Cynthia Ann Parker was taken by Comanches in an 1836 raid and retrieved in a ‘battle’ (actually a massacre of old men, women and children) by Texas rangers in 1860. He tells the story of Cynthia’s son Quanah Parker. Most of all he tells us how the legend of ‘how the West was won’ was formed over a century or more, and the racism that underlies it.

I’ve read the book with pleasure, now I’d like to see the film.

3. Barrier Reef dredging plans changes

It looks as though plans to dump waste on the Great Barrier Reef will be changed so that the waste will be dumped on land. What the report doesn’t say is that the change of plans is based on new technology, making land dumping the cheaper option rather than an outbreak of good sense on the part of the minister, Greg Hunt.

4. What Country in the World Best Fits Your Personality?

For me the answer is Iceland.

Iceland_b5d533e5-cd2f-4888-a1b3-774bc7f1e092_500

What a surprise!

A blighted vision for the NBN

Donald Rumsfeld spoke about “unknown unknowns”. The Communications Chambers cost-benefit analysis (CBA) report gets rid of such nonsense by ruling it out. As Stilgherrian at Crikey says:

the key problem is the overall assumption that we’ll see a gentle, incremental growth in internet demand — whatever its rate for individual application — based on the kinds of things we’re doing on the internet today.

During a digital revolution, they seem to have missed the revolution part.

So the Multi-Technology Mix (MTM) model for the NBN will be fine, as long as you don’t want to use the internet much. Or as David Havyatt at the AFR says:

Choosing between the MTM and FTTP isn’t just about the outcome of the CBA. It is about choosing whether we want the nation to be technology leaders or technology laggards. It is about choosing whether we want to make do with inefficient government service delivery or drive it hard for efficiency and effectiveness.

The MTM simply rules out applications that could emerge in health and education which depend on a ubiquitous high-speed service, so public benefit is put at 5% of usage in the review. In truth it’s unknown with the fibre to the premises (FTTP) option, which was why a CBA always had limited value.

Stilgherrian says the model completely misses the Internet of Things, that is, the myriad devices such as smart air conditioners and light bulbs, toys and medical sensors. It assumes that such usage will fit into the cracks.

So 15 Mbps is seen as good enough for the vast bulk of users. There is no value assigned to the higher speeds a 100 Mbps would provide.

Hence the review strips away the known unknowns, dealing only with known knowns and very conservatively at that. Gentle, incremental growth in existing internet demand is assumed. It’s a case of dumbing down to the lowest common denominator.

The NBN strategic review found the FTTP cost only $8.6 billion more than MTM, a steal at the price. Yet the CBA review has inexplicably added $4 billion to the cost of FttP. Havyatt says this is problematic if not simply arbitrary and wrong.

In his blog post Havyatt points out that 70% of people connected to the NBN are opting and paying for a 100/40 Mpbs service. They are looking for speed if not volume. That’s what they want. Turnbull’s mob are taking the paternalistic view that it is not what they need.

I’m not sure of the funding arrangements for the NBN. I suspect that it is being funded on budget as an infrastructure program. Labor’s FTTP system was being funded off-budget effectively costing taxpayers nothing, against future privatisation.

All in all as in so many areas the Abbott government is dragging us back decades and compromising our future as a sophisticated economy. Think, for example, the renewable power industry and their passion for coal. Labor’s positive legacy is being destroyed with vigour and enthusiasm.

See also Deja vue all over again: the new NBN.

Newman Unable to stop 2794 new Qld Solar in Aug

Newman’s anti solar hysteria and the economic punishing of those who continue to install solar is having little effect on the growth of both rooftop and commercial solar.  During August, another 2,794 systems of 5kW or less were added to bring another 11.5MW of capacity into the system.  This despite the fact that participating households are being paid little for their power exports.

Continue reading Newman Unable to stop 2794 new Qld Solar in Aug

Chair of RET Review Not Looking Good

Climate Spectator had this post on Dick Warburton, the Chair of the RET review committee and his performance on a Fran Kelly interview after his review had been released. It gives a picture of a man who doesn’t understand his own report or anything much else apart from the need to recommend the destruction of the RET and all the jobs it has created. Continue reading Chair of RET Review Not Looking Good

Australia’s involvement in Iraq conflict: how should we decide?

Contrasting views were put yesterday on the issue as to whether parliament should decide on our involvement in the Iraq conflict. Tony Abbott put the status quo thus:

The National Security Committee of the Cabinet considers the matter, the full Cabinet considers he matter, a decision is taken, the Opposition leader is consulted.

That’s the standard procedure. It’s always been thus; as far as I’m concerned it always will be thus.

I understand that Abbott made a statement to parliament in the afternoon advising members of developments and the action taken and contemplated. Abbott ruled out giving Parliament a vote on the current airlift to Iraq and any subsequent involvement.

In this he was backed by Labor. Stephen Conroy:

Labor fully supports the role of Parliament as a place of debate, but that should not be confused with requiring parliamentary approval. The role of the Parliament in approving military action is fraught with danger. The Government must retain maximum flexibility to respond to threats to Australia’s national security quickly and efficiently.

The Liberal Democrats think there should be a two-thirds vote in both houses of Parliament to commit forces overseas in foreign conflicts.

The Greens are leading the charge for the parliament to have a vote. Christine Milne:

The Australian Parliament now needs to be consulted and approval needs to be sought from the representatives of the people.

And:

Greens leader Christine Milne says there’s been no United Nations resolution for intervening in northern Iraq, nor, she says, has anyone seen an Iraqi government request.

Andrew Wilkie is very much of the same view. He questions whether we are becoming gun-runners for the Kurds at the direction of the United States.

Wilkie says it’s time Australia followed the lead of a long list of “sophisticated, developed democracies”:

Countries as diverse as Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the United States, and by convention, now even the United Kingdom – all of these countries require parliamentary involvement in decision-making about matters of war and peace.

Flexibilty and speed of decision making can save lives. However, there is concern about mission creep. Also Laura Tingle tells us that modern prime ministers have assumed the right to make a decision irrespective of cabinet’s views. Laura Tingle says:

The trend towards all powerful prime ministers – or to that perception – has been a persistent one in the past 30 years.

There were some ding dong battles in the Howard cabinet: on the early round of industrial relations reforms in 1996, for example, on the GST; on the car industry.

But as the government aged, and the absolute authority of the prime minister grew, the idea of cabinet government started to recede.

It wasn’t that cabinet didn’t meet and debate, it was just that ministers would increasingly be inclined to just shrug their shoulders and gesticulate at the PM’s office down the corridor to explain what was driving the direction of a particular policy.

The same was apparently true under Rudd and Gillard. But under Hawke in the mid-1980s things were different:

A reminder of what has been lost comes leaping out at us from Gareth Evans’s Inside the Hawke Keating Government: A Cabinet Diary, released this week.

It says much that a diary written 30 years ago can still sparkle and shimmy with a vibrancy that puts most recent political tomes to shame.

The striking thing about the book she says is “the sense of both collective responsibility and authority felt by the colourful cabinet ministers who brawl and wrestle their way through complex issues in the pages of Evans’s diary, covering the period 1984-86.”

How the Abbott cabinet works is not known to me. We have heard of Peta Credlin as head of PMO tearing strips off ministers.

Mark Latham argues for a Bastardry Factor as essential in a leader. Apparently Bill Shorten doesn’t have it. Thank God for that!

On the present issue I have the sense that Abbott has been genuinely consultative, and on balance I’d leave the protocols as they are. That’s unless there are to be boots on the ground. Then the Liberal Democrats’ notion of a two-thirds majority in both houses looks good to me.

Menzies was not afraid of debt

Richard Denniss at The Conversation takes a look at Menzies’ approach to debt financing.

Robert Menzies left Australia in far worse financial shape than he found it, at least according to current treasurer Joe Hockey’s favourite debt and deficit benchmark. Having inherited budget surpluses from the Chifley Labor government, the Menzies Coalition government ran small budget surpluses from 1949-50 to 1957-58.

But then Menzies’ “irresponsible profligacy” began, running budget deficits for the last nine years of his reign.

Menzies was interested in nation building rather than obsessing about budget deficits.

So, what was Menzies up to? He clearly wasn’t obsessed with the budget deficits or worried about numbers of public servants that so concern Hockey. The economy grew quite steadily, often growing at more than 6% in real terms. Unemployment was mostly around 2% or less, and only 1.6% when he retired. Over his time in power, you couldn’t even argue that Menzies was trying to balance the budget over the business cycle.

Menzies was interested in nation-building. He not only wanted rapid population growth, but he wanted infrastructure growth and growth in the health and education services that make a society both cohesive and productive.

Like any successful corporate leader, he was willing to use long-run debt financing to fund long-run investments. Menzies knew that a lot of his budget spending was for capital projects that would deliver benefits for decades, so why should he have funded them entirely out of one year’s revenue?

Hockey, on the other hand, wants to fund a big increase in infrastructure spending with no increase in tax and no increase in debt. He wants to fund more capital spending by cutting spending on essential services and income support for poor people.

The simplistic notion that a deficit is evidence that a government is “living beyond its means” is complete economic nonsense. Leaving aside that historic and international evidence provides no support for the claim that budget deficits cause long-run economic problems, the argument is contradicted by the corporate decision making that politicians pretend to emulate.

Historically substantial levels of public debt have been normal:

bbpvnfch-1409104651_cropped_600

Commonwealth net debt stood at 12.5% of GDP in June. The following graph shows net debt projected out to 2013-24:

xzfzrtn9-1409102572_600

Government ministers are fond of household and corporate analogies.

It is perfectly normal for a family to borrow money to buy a house, up to 27 to 30% of annual income. Corporates that do not have debt of 30 to 60% of net worth are said to have ‘lazy’ balance sheets. Unless they take on respectable levels of debt, growth prospects are usually minimal.

Parents of a school wanting to build a swimming pool or other optional facility typically need to borrow money otherwise they will never get the use of the facility while their kids are at school.

Where would Brisbane be without the Story Bridge? According to Wikipedia the successful tender was ₤1,150,000. From memory the debt was finally paid off in 1997, when the payments were actually negligible.

Hockey, Abbott, Cormann and company take us for fools, insult our intelligence and generally carry on in a reprehensible manner! They are not acting in the national interest.

See also Hockey’s debt and deficit mess.

Saturday salon 30/8

voltaire_230

An open thread where, at your leisure, you can discuss anything you like, well, within reason and the Comments Policy. Include here news and views, plus any notable personal experiences from the week and the weekend.

For climate topics please use the most recent Climate clippings.

The gentleman in the image is Voltaire, who for a time graced the court of Frederick II of Prussia, known as Frederick the Great. King Fred loved to talk about the universe and everything at the end of a day’s work. He also used the salons of Berlin to get feedback in the development of public policy.

Fred would only talk in French; he regarded German as barbaric. Here we’ll use English.

The thread will be a stoush-free zone. The Comments Policy says:

The aim [of this site] is to provide a venue for people to contribute and to engage in a civil and respectful manner.

Here are a few bits and pieces that came to my attention last week.

1. Union believes ABC cut will be much bigger

Depressing!

The coalition government’s review of the ABC has recommended much deeper cuts than previously proposed, the journalists’ union believes.

The Media, Entertainment & Arts Alliance (MEAA) says it has been advised that the government’s Lewis Review into ABC and SBS efficiency will suggest dramatically exceeding the $120 million of cuts over four years in the May budget.

It believes the review will effectively recommend a total cut of more than $130 million in the next 12 months and more than $100 million in each subsequent year.

MEAA federal secretary Christopher Warren warned that the cuts, and the reduction in staff numbers, would cause irreversible damage to the national broadcaster.

“The cuts the Lewis Review is set to propose would decimate the ABC,” he said in a statement on Friday.

Severe cuts would have a direct impact on vital and unique services and would likely reduce the number of foreign bureaus and cause a distinct drop in the ABC’s rural and regional reach.

2. Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind

Kelly Higgins-Devine interviewed the author of Sapiens, Yuval Harari. Has anyone read it or found a decent review? Here’s a bit of a rave.

Harari reckons the key to our success as a species is the ability to cooperate en masse flexibly rather than inflexibly like ants.

3. Long-term Gaza ceasefire deal struck

But will it stick?

From The World Today on Wednesday:

After 50 days of conflict which killed more than 2,000 people, Palestinian and Israeli negotiators have now agreed to a long-term ceasefire over Gaza.

The deal was brokered in Cairo overnight and will see the Israeli government ease its blockade of Gaza.

4. Qantas posts worst loss in airline’s history

CEO says Qantas has ‘turned a corner’ after posting its worst loss

Will it work? Qantas’ former chief economist crunches the numbers

Unions blame management for massive Qantas loss

Enough is enough – it’s time to go Alan Joyce

Virgin’s operating loss, proportionate to size, was about as bad as that of Qantas, whose loss was mainly asset write-downs. I think air fares are going to become more expensive.

Getting serious about climate change mitigation

At Carbon Brief the most read post is The what, when and where of global greenhouse gas emissions: A visual summary of the IPCC’s climate mitigation report from 13 April 2014. It is an excellent post, condensing the message of a complex report. What a pity that it is completely out of date and more than a little misleading in terms of current scientific realities!

The problem is that because of the publishing cycle and the compilation process in putting together the IPCC reports the science they are based on is about three years old at time of first appearance. Then the IPCC reports are quoted in the media as gospel for a further seven years.

As I explained back in June in The game is up following a David Spratt post from May, there is no burnable carbon left if we want a reasonable chance of a safe climate. I repeat here three quotes from Spratt:

We have to come to terms with two key facts: practically speaking, there is no longer a “carbon budget” for burning fossil fuels while still achieving a two-degree Celsius (2°C) future; and the 2°C cap is now known to be dangerously too high.(My bold)

He says we need to take a proper approach “around contingency planning for high-impact and what were regarded as low-probability events, which unfortunately are now becoming more probable”.

If a risk-averse (pro-safety) approach is applied – say, of less than 10% probability of exceeding the 2°C target – to carbon budgeting, there is simply no budget available, because it has already been used up.

We all wish the incremental-adjustment 2°C strategy had worked, but it hasn’t. It has now expired as a practical plan.

There is no longer a non-radical option, only one path remains viable: the emergency ‘war economy’ mode.

Even when it was written the IPCC report was problematic. Take for example this statement in the Carbon Brief summary:

It shows that if emissions between 2005 and 2030 are within the dark green chunk on the left panel, then reductions between 2030 and 2050 would need to be around three or four per cent a year (the dark green bar on the middle panel). If emissions follow a path within the lighter green chunks on the left, reductions will have to be closer to five or six per cent a year between 2030 and 2050 (the lighter green bars in the middle panel).

In October last year I posted this graph from Malte Meinshausen which dates from 2009:

Figure 3: Meinshausen's emissions reduction options
Figure 3: Meinshausen’s emissions reduction options

In other words if we leave peaking until 2030 we will need annual reductions of emissions of 22.6%, reach zero by 2043 and then go negative. That was before the “carbon budget” shrunk.

In my view the world should aim peak by about 2020, try to reach zero by 2030 and then go negative. In Oz as the largest per capita emitter of the major economies we should be aiming for 45 to 50% reductions by 2020.

The portrayal of the problem as it stands in the Carbon Brief post is in my view dangerously irresponsible. In my own summary of the mitigation report in May I called the approach taken “reckless”.

Nevertheless it has a useful graphic which gives an overview of where the emissions are coming from:

Emmissions by economic sector_cropped_600

Our focus tends to be on electricity and motor vehicle transport, which amount to less than half of the problem. The green AFOLU segment represents agriculture, forestry and land use, a segment that is particularly difficult to deal with.

There is much to be done!

Childcare: subsidise it for child welfare if at all, not as a workforce enabler

Late last year Joe Hockey asked the Productivity Commission to investigate childcare and early learning. They brought down a draft report last month. Laura Tingle takes up the story:

The commission’s terms of reference talked about improving the flexibility and affordability of childcare which, in turn, would help workforce participation.

The headlines generated by the draft report focused on the possibility of childcare subsidies extending to nannies, and the fact the PC dumped on the PPL scheme, suggesting its funding be instead put in to subsidising childcare.

But the 904-page report actually shakes up a lot more of the “givens” in the wider policy debate.

It recommends directing subsidies back through childcare providers, for example, ending one of the Howard-era payments that tried to politically leverage spending by putting it instead in taxpayers’ hands.

It deals both with particular structural problems in the childcare market and how these play into the shortages of places that terrify any new parent. For example, caring for babies younger than two costs roughly twice as much as it does to look after older children, yet most providers cross-subsidise to entice parents in the door but in ways which partly explain the lack of places for really little kids.

The commission’s report also deals with the effective marginal tax rate disincentives in the welfare system to parents returning to work and how structured subsidies exacerbate these problems.

childcare-300The big surprise, however, was the Commission’s finding that improved childcare accessibility isn’t going to lead to any significant improvement in either participation or productivity. This is counter-intuitive and brings into question the social and economic efficacy of the paid parental leave scheme. Nevertheless the Commission comes up with the novel idea that subsidies could be justified in the interests of the well-being of children.

Tingle says:

That is, childcare has tended to be debated as a workforce issue, or as an entitlement issue for parents, rather than one that frames the discussion as one about government subsidies directed at the welfare of children.

Childcare has snuck up on us as a new “entitlement” in the past few decades that now sees governments meeting two-thirds of total costs, without the community ever having a real debate about what the community benefits – as opposed to the benefits to individual families – might be.

Tingle says we haven’t ever really discussed the issue, or how we best target set dollars to maximise outcomes if children’s well-being is the target, rather than the workforce.

Tingle perhaps missed a series of discussions probably at least 10 years ago, from memory, largely via Radio National’s Life Matters program on whether child care was good for children.

Early childhood education practitioners I talked to at the time were largely negative about long day-care. On the other hand, there was evident value for development and learning for children to be exposed for part of the week to the stimulus provided by quality child care. The tipping point between positive and negative is not a matter for generalisation, rather it depends on individual circumstances.

I note here that Queensland’s preschool education provisions introduced in 1971 by some talented and respected early childhood educators opted for a model that had five 2.5 sessions per week with each preschool having two groups either split to mornings and afternoons, or splitting the week at Wednesday lunchtime. The sector achieved a 90% participation rate, with some children also attending childcare during part or the whole of the rest of the week. The preschool year has now been replaced by a full prep year starting children 6 months older.

There was also detailed examination of institutional delivery provisions at the time when Maxine McKew was working for Julia Gillard, then minister for education, when Labor policy was to deliver childcare in association with schools. I know McKew was talking to some well-credentialled people about imaginative, indeed exciting delivery modes. Apparently she was cut off at the knees by Gillard and the initiative was dropped as a cost saving measure.

I’ve never heard the real story on what happened. McKew did not generate much public debate on the issues, just worked away quietly, perhaps too quietly. I’ve long suspected that her relationship with Gillard was basically dysfunctional from the start for whatever reason.

Tingle’s main point, however, is that this government’s MO is the grab for solutions without working through a proper public policy development process. I don’t see that changing.

This one is worth doing properly. Research from decades ago indicates that early childhood education opportunities have a lifetime impact on personality styles and individual life chances. In my humble opinion the lack of appropriate early childhood experiences shows in many of our politicians. Many were almost certainly bullies in the sandpit!

Update: Finally I read the chapter ‘Not Just Child Play’ in Maxine McKew’s Tales from the Political Trenches.

From reviews it seems there was a lack of chemistry between Gillard and McKew, but from the book their relationship seems professional enough within McKew’s portfolio responsibilities.

Labor went to the election promising 260 new centres to be associated with educational institutions, presumably principally schools. 38 of the centres were targeted for ‘hot spots’ of special need. It’s not clear from the text whether these 38 were built, but expressions of interest were called for the remaining 222.

In the event the money was spent on cleaning up after Eddy Groves and the collapse of the ABC chain.

There was a proposal to include the childcare centres in the Building the Education Revolution funding (halls and libraries) but Gillard chose not to run with it. There was a problem McKew says, in that for every centre with hopelessly long waiting lists there was one down the road struggling to fill places. Quality varied immensely and the stories from some centres curdled the blood. There was a national accreditation body, but it was operating at the limits of effectiveness, in other words in practical terms it was virtually useless.

McKew then turned to the task of cleaning up the existing system which was a mess of different provisions and standards across the country. She appointed and worked with an Expert Advisory Panel, which looked at everything from staffing ratios, to program and curriculum standards and systems for accreditation and supervision under the rubric of a National Quality Framework. McKew says that this was successful, but few in the community may be aware of its existence.

On staff ratios, the norm was 1:5 for under twos. McKew wanted 1:3 but the states and territories would only come at 1:4. Every centre with 25 or more children would employ an early childhood teacher by 2014. In addition, at least 50% of other staff would need to have or be working towards a diploma in early childhood education and care.

The critical meeting, co-chaired by McKew and Gillard, was held in mid-2009 under the auspices of COAG. McKew says:

Gillard brought a calm rationality to proceedings, and with appeals at times to ‘the collaborative spirit of COAG’, she locked in a transformative agreement.

Mission accomplished, it seems, and McKew went off to work for Anthony Albanese.

The proposed GP co-payment is dead

Along with apologising comprehensively to the Chinese, yesterday Clive Palmer announced that the proposed GP co-payment was not going to happen. Not one cent, he said. Palmer was effectively saying that as a wealthy country we can afford the health system we’ve got.

Well, I think that there won’t be a $7 co-payment. It’s just media beat up, you know, it’s not going to happen. And, you’ve got to remember that in Australia we spend 8.9 per cent of our GDP on health. In the United States they spend 17.2 per cent of GDP on health, yet 60 million Americans have no coverage.

I’m not sure he’s right about 60 million Americans having no coverage. In my mind it was 40 odd million and that was before Obamacare. fROM MEMORY bout the same number who are ‘food insecure’, that is they aren’t sure whether they will eat tomorrow.

Minister Peter Dutton, however, was saying that we need the co-payment because the health system is unsustainable. In other words, in the government’s view, we need as a matter of social and economic policy the poor to go to the doctor less. However, GP services are recognised as being in the front line as preventative medicine. Ignoring the health welfare of the poor, health policy aficionados question whether the co-payment would not actually cost the system more in the long run.

We can’t assume that the Government actually knows what it wants to achieve with its policy. Laura Tingle finds the government’s position completely muddle-headed and inconsistent.

No matter how much it may now criticise the AMA proposal, no matter how large a hole the proposal leaves in the budget, the government is yet to find its own way through the debate, or even clarify what the actual aim of its policy really is.

Apparently the AMA proposal, the one Tony Abbott personally asked them to put together, eliminated 97% of the projected budget savings. But Tingle says that it dealt with the equity problem and addressed

the very issue the government said it wanted to deal with when it first raised the idea of a Medicare co-payment before the budget.

That is, that those who can afford to make a contribution to the cost of going to the doctor should do so.

It should be remembered, I think, that savings from the GP co-payment initiative would not be used to pay off the deficit. Rather a research fund was going to be established which was going to save the nation, having lost the car industry, and find a cure for cancer. Or something.

Yet minister Pyne can threaten to take the savings out of general university research funding if his proposals re universities are not passed.

This is a government that far from tackling problems in an orderly way as they claim is resorting to ad hoc threats and bullying rather than deliberative policy processes. Part of the problem is accommodating Abbott’s signature policy initiative, the paid parental leave scheme. As Tingle says in this article:

Wherever Hockey, or other ministers go trying to sell the budget, for example, they have to try to explain how its paid parental leave scheme fits with spending cuts that hurt low-income earners hardest.