1. Millennials lack hope
I heard it on the radio, and have tracked it down, I think, to The Deloitte Millennial Survey 2017. It depends where you live:
- Millennials in emerging markets generally expect to be both financially (71 percent) and emotionally (62 percent) better off than their parents. This is in stark contrast to mature markets, where only 36 percent of millennials predict they will be financially better off than their parents and 31 percent say they’ll be happier.
- The perception that the previous generation enjoyed generally happier times is held most strongly within Japan, South Korea, and countries in mainland Europe (including France and Germany). Millennials in India, Colombia, China, Peru, the Philippines, and Indonesia are most convinced that they will be happier than their parents.
- the US is the only mature market where a majority of millennials expect to be better off than their parents. Indeed, the balance of millennials in France, Japan, Belgium, South Korea, Italy, and Switzerland quite clearly expect to be worse off.
There was a question about whether interviewees expect the social/political situations in their countries to improve during the next 12 months. Again 48 per cent in emerging countries do, but only 25 per cent in mature economies.
- This lack of optimism regarding “social progress” is most evident in the following markets: South Korea, Mexico, Belgium, France, Chile,
Germany, Japan, UK, Australia, and Italy. Meanwhile, greater optimism is seen in the Philippines, Peru, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, and Canada. (Emphasis added)
Trumble vs Trudeau makes a big difference!
2. Trump mayhem
Trump mayhem reached a peak with an unprecedented 76-minute press conference which began with a 25-minute rant.
Earlier, National Security Advisor Michael Flynn had to resign. News leaked out that he had had contact with the Russians when Trump was President-elect, telling them not to react to Obama’s sanctions for interfering in the election, because Trump would have a different view.
Now it has become clear that Trump aides had repeated contact with the Russians, and that the US spooks had been keeping a close eye on what was happening.
There is a question now as to how far congressional Republicans will go to find out what happened, and who knew what when. Certainly Trump knew about Flynn for some time and the resignation only happened when the matter became public. A special prosecutor could bring sunlight to some uncomfortable places.
John Kehoe and others have been detailing chaos and power struggles within the Trump camp.
- Trump’s relatively even-minded chief of staff, Reince Priebus, and Vice-President Pence, Republican establishment figures who observers believe have tried to install order to the Oval Office, appear to be outgunned by the disruptive forces of chief strategist Stephen Bannon, conservative crusader Stephen Miller and spinner Kellyanne Conway.
Like Trump, the trio reputedly thrive on chaos and rallying cries that Trump whipped up on Thursday.
Son-in-law Jared Kushner and former Goldman Sachs executive Gary Cohn are also wielding influence in between. The White House chain of command seems vague.
There’s more, of course, but I’ll end with irrepressible David Rowe, cartoonist for the AFR:
3. One Nation arrives in the west
Barnaby Joyce says it will backfire, John Howard says it’s “sensible”, Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t care, Pauline says “They’ve got no choice but to take me seriously…”. The WANationals are outraged. I speak of the preference deal between the Liberals and One Nation in WA.
From what I’ve heard, no-one in WA seems to like the idea other than Colin Barnett, and perhaps Labor. Many Liberal voters are so outraged, they are going to vote Labor. Some local One Nation candidates seem to think the idea sucks, and was done over their heads by Pauline. William Bowe (Poll Bludger) says it’s complicated, but the deal could net Labor five seats. An Essential poll finds that 30% of Liberal voters are less likely to vote Liberal.
Elsewhere, Essential asked whether people in Oz might like to vote for Bernadi’s Australian Conservatives in a future Federal election. Some 62% said no, versus 14% said likely. That might sound encouraging, but only 3% said ‘very likely.
In Essential’s Federal Voting Intention poll only 6% intended voting independent/other, while One Nation was on 10%.
Turnbull may have been encouraged by pulling Labor back a peg to 48-52 on TPP.
Meanwhile Laurie Oakes told Buzzfeed that Turnbull was a “sad figure” because he was not his own man and would never get to do the things he wanted to do, even if he wins the next election, which he probably won’t.
4. Other stuff
I usually try to keep these items to 150 words, and the three above are more like 250. There was plenty else going on in politics this week, including Scott Morrison trying to blackmail the senate crossbench into passing his zombie social welfare cuts by linking the savings to funding the NDIS. Xenophon was outraged and gobsmacked. However, I believe he was ready to play until other members of his team said they wouldn’t join him.
There were stories of note about housing affordability, with Liberal backbencher John Anderson showing he was better in this area of policy than he was playing tennis. There was stuff about slow wages growth, a report on Closing the Gap where we are making progress on only one indicator out of seven, and attention of pollies and the media didn’t last beyond lunch-time.
Finally former Qld premier Anna Bligh is taking over as CEO of the Australian Bankers Association, presumably for her talent for defending the indefensible.
Introduction to Saturday salon
Because of the way the blog currently presents posts on the home page I think it’s better to remove the introductory material to a different place. For new readers, here’s the rationale for this space.
An open thread where, at your leisure, you can discuss anything you like, well, within reason and the Comments Policy. Include here news and views, plus any notable personal experiences from the week and the weekend.
For climate topics please use the most recent Climate clippings.
The gentleman in the image is Voltaire, who for a time graced the court of Frederick II of Prussia, known as Frederick the Great. King Fred loved to talk about the universe and everything at the end of a day’s work. He also used the salons of Berlin to get feedback in the development of public policy.
Fred would only talk in French; he regarded German as barbaric. Here we’ll use English.
The thread will be a stoush-free zone. The Comments Policy says:
The aim [of this site] is to provide a venue for people to contribute and to engage in a civil and respectful manner.