According to Newspoll if an election were held on 6 February this year, Labor would have 85 seats, the LNP 60 and there would be five others:
As Michelle Grattan said, the seventh loss in a row, and the worst since Turnbull became PM. Something happened last September, and it’s been looking uglier for Turnbull ever since. Continue reading Poll stuff: politics as usual resumes in 2017
While Antony Green at the end of Saturday night deemed the election result unknowable, Bill Shorten gave a victory speech that declined to claim victory, but said the Coalition had lost their mandate. “Labor is back”, he said.
Turnbull waited until after midnight, claimed a victory in the making, and in what many considered an ungracious speech, blamed everyone except himself. It was a political speech which neglected some of the conventions. Michelle Grattan, in an excellent analysis, said he was “extraordinarily lacking in self-awareness”, “showed not a scintilla of humility” and “made no gesture of contrition, no promise that he had heard the message the people had delivered.”
Let’s look at the numbers. Continue reading What have we done?
1. Bill finds his voice
No more zingers for Bill Shorten, and now voice coaching from Dean Frenkel, a throat singer and lecturer in public speaking and communications at Victoria University, who thinks we all need lessons in elocution. After 14 years as a union rabble rouser Bill tried to soften his image. But: Continue reading Saturday salon 16/4
Newspoll came out 53-47 in favour of the LNP, so support for Turnbull looks solid and enduring. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings were a smidgeon better but still disastrous at 57 points behind Turnbull. To make matters worse, internal ALP polling on Bill has been leaked. Continue reading Poll stuff 2/2
Labor says its goal is to reduce Australia’s net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. Labor is also beginning consultations on an interim goal of reducing emissions by 45 per cent by 2030.
Predictably, this has started a war of words. Continue reading Labor announces long-term climate goals
From the AFR:
Under Labor’s plan, a pack of 25 cigarettes would cost $40.80 in 2020, up from $24.69 today.
Continue reading Ciggies at $40 a pack and Shorten’s Labor tanks in QLD
Newspoll has the LNP on a comfortable lead of 52-48 on TPP terms. Last week Fairfax-Ipsos came in at 53-47, which is landslide territory.
If you go to Fairfax Polls and click on “Poll of polls” and go to last week, you’ll find that Labor averaged 46.7 across the polls. Roy Morgan has been the most negative for Labor. Continue reading Should Bill Shorten give up?
Newspoll has Abbott sinking further into the mire. Essential gives him some hope, but finds Justice Heydon should go. Continue reading Poll stuff 26/8
On Monday night Abbott presided over a cabinet meeting. I heard on Radio National:
The Guardian reports that there was not a single formal Cabinet submission to consider and that has some MPs concerned that the Government’s policy agenda is looking thin.
Continue reading Liberals bicker, Bill gets a lift
It’s happening, he says, through the action of consumers and industry.
“This is a consumer revolution, as much as it is an energy transformation empowering Australian households, communities and businesses,” Shorten said. (It is) putting control back in the hands of the user, shifting the balance away from big power companies.”
Continue reading Climate clippings 151
Last week’s Morgan poll had Labor ahead 54-46, Essential continues at 53-47. There was no Newspoll this week but the Abbott Government’s political fortunes remain decisively buried. Interest turns to how the leaders are tracking. Here the news is that “Don’t know” and “Anyone else” are performing very well indeed. Continue reading Poll stuff 5/8
Turning back asylum seeker boats can only be done legally and ethically, in my view, with the agreement of transitional countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Unfortunately the form of the decision made at the ALP conference makes clear that the ALP would seek to act without such agreement. Continue reading Turning back boats – only by agreement