Last year around this time I did a post Will Turnbull be PM this time next year? Clearly he’s still here, but it seems a lot of people wish he wasn’t. Is he a dead man walking in politics?
The polls were diabolical back then – Turnbull had just chalked up his eighth losing Newspoll in a row. Now that has blown out to 25 and the situation has gotten worse. Back then the TPP vote was 52-48 in favour of Labor, now it is 54-46. Last year the Labor primary vote had nearly overtaken the Coalition, rising from an election deficit of 34.7-42.1 to 37-39. Now Labor leads 37-35.
Simon Benson writing in the Australian says Coalition close to a point of no return. In January 2001 John Howard was a dead man walking. Yet in November that year he won. Can Turnbull do the same? Continue reading Malcolm Turnbull has led us to a strange place
1. Turnbull’s Kim Jong-un moment
One of two big stories this week, from the SMH, Peter Dutton to head merged ASIO, AFP and Border Force super security department. However, Paula Matthewson at The New Daily captured the spirit of the thing by focussing on the optics in Hilarious and menacing at the same time: Turnbull’s Kim Jong-un moment. When Abbott made a national security announcement, this is what we got:
Continue reading Saturday salon 22/7
According to Newspoll if an election were held on 6 February this year, Labor would have 85 seats, the LNP 60 and there would be five others:
As Michelle Grattan said, the seventh loss in a row, and the worst since Turnbull became PM. Something happened last September, and it’s been looking uglier for Turnbull ever since. Continue reading Poll stuff: politics as usual resumes in 2017
While Antony Green at the end of Saturday night deemed the election result unknowable, Bill Shorten gave a victory speech that declined to claim victory, but said the Coalition had lost their mandate. “Labor is back”, he said.
Turnbull waited until after midnight, claimed a victory in the making, and in what many considered an ungracious speech, blamed everyone except himself. It was a political speech which neglected some of the conventions. Michelle Grattan, in an excellent analysis, said he was “extraordinarily lacking in self-awareness”, “showed not a scintilla of humility” and “made no gesture of contrition, no promise that he had heard the message the people had delivered.”
Let’s look at the numbers. Continue reading What have we done?
1. Bill finds his voice
No more zingers for Bill Shorten, and now voice coaching from Dean Frenkel, a throat singer and lecturer in public speaking and communications at Victoria University, who thinks we all need lessons in elocution. After 14 years as a union rabble rouser Bill tried to soften his image. But: Continue reading Saturday salon 16/4
Newspoll came out 53-47 in favour of the LNP, so support for Turnbull looks solid and enduring. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings were a smidgeon better but still disastrous at 57 points behind Turnbull. To make matters worse, internal ALP polling on Bill has been leaked. Continue reading Poll stuff 2/2
Labor says its goal is to reduce Australia’s net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. Labor is also beginning consultations on an interim goal of reducing emissions by 45 per cent by 2030.
Predictably, this has started a war of words. Continue reading Labor announces long-term climate goals
From the AFR:
Under Labor’s plan, a pack of 25 cigarettes would cost $40.80 in 2020, up from $24.69 today.
Continue reading Ciggies at $40 a pack and Shorten’s Labor tanks in QLD
Newspoll has the LNP on a comfortable lead of 52-48 on TPP terms. Last week Fairfax-Ipsos came in at 53-47, which is landslide territory.
If you go to Fairfax Polls and click on “Poll of polls” and go to last week, you’ll find that Labor averaged 46.7 across the polls. Roy Morgan has been the most negative for Labor. Continue reading Should Bill Shorten give up?
Newspoll has Abbott sinking further into the mire. Essential gives him some hope, but finds Justice Heydon should go. Continue reading Poll stuff 26/8
On Monday night Abbott presided over a cabinet meeting. I heard on Radio National:
The Guardian reports that there was not a single formal Cabinet submission to consider and that has some MPs concerned that the Government’s policy agenda is looking thin.
Continue reading Liberals bicker, Bill gets a lift
It’s happening, he says, through the action of consumers and industry.
“This is a consumer revolution, as much as it is an energy transformation empowering Australian households, communities and businesses,” Shorten said. (It is) putting control back in the hands of the user, shifting the balance away from big power companies.”
Continue reading Climate clippings 151