The third record year in a row has been declared. The last time it was as hot as this was 115,000 years ago. The last time CO2 was this high was in the Pliocene, 3 to 5 million years ago when the temperature became roughly 3 to 4 degrees Celsius warmer than today, and the sea level up to 40 metres higher.
Andrew Simms for The Guardian polled a number of scientists about whether we could keep warming under 2°C. Not a single one thought we would. One scientist said “not a cat in hell’s chance”. Kevin Anderson, now professor in Uppsala, said politically we gave up years ago. Prof Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, would “only confirm that it is still possible to keep global warming below 2C”. Technically speaking, I assume. Continue reading Record 2016 heat spells trouble on global scale
Back in 2001 the IPCC devised the famous Burning embers graph to reflect a broad perspective of risks emanating from climate change. Seventeen scientists have now had another look, original paper here. The graph has been enhanced with more information, which is itself more up to date. Continue reading Climate risks re-examined
1. Methane emissions spiking
The Global Methane Budget 2016 has been released, and the news is not good.
CSIRO researcher Dr Pep Canadell said it was the most comprehensive modelling to date and revealed a potentially dangerous climate wildcard.
“Methane emissions were stable for quite a few years at the end of the 2000s. But they’ve begun to grow much faster, in fact 10 times faster, since 2007,” said Dr Canadell, who is also the executive director of the Global Carbon Project.
Continue reading Climate clippings 194
James Hansen and Makiko Sato have just released a new temperature graph, which highlights the underlying trend, and is more than a little alarming:
See also his blog post that looks at the implications and what we need to do. Continue reading Hansen’s new temperature graph heads north
That’s the judgement of NASA GISS boss Gavin Schmidt, while praising her two million-year temperature reconstruction.
National Geographic reports that other scientists have backed Schmidt’s judgement, while praising her temperature reconstruction. The paper claims that the long-term committed warming from today’s CO2 levels is 5ºC (range 3-7ºC), and that if emissions double the long-term increase will be ~9ºC (range 7-13ºC). She’s talking long-term, over the next few millenia. Continue reading Carolyn Snyder’s temperature forecasts are just plain wrong!
Seasonally planet Earth is hottest in July. Northern summers are hotter because of the greater land mass in the Northern Hemisphere. This July was a scorcher, being the hottest single month since records began:
The cool spot below Greenland is now average. Continue reading July 2016 Earth’s hottest month may herald step change in climate
NOAA’s annual State of the Climate report has recently been released, showing the climate change is proceeding apace on all fronts. The 300 page report compiled by 450 scientists from 62 countries confirmed there was a “toppling of several symbolic mileposts” in heat, sea level rise and extreme weather in 2015. From The Guardian:
“The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle,” Michael Mann, a leading climatologist at Penn State, told the Guardian. “They are playing out before us, in real time. The 2015 numbers drive that home.”
Continue reading State of the Climate 2015
His boss, Pauline Hanson, thinks he has the “true facts”, and in denialists quarters he has gained a reputation for exposing corruption in the IPCC, the CSIRO and elsewhere. Continue reading Climate clippings 177
April 2016 was the hottest April ever, making a run of 12 hottest months in a row. We are starting to flirt with the 1.5°C warming threshold. Here’s the global map, showing impressive warming in high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Australia is also noticeably warm: Continue reading Flirting with 1.5°C as we record 12 hottest months in a row
1. March scorcher
March temperatures were the hottest March ever and second largest monthly anomaly. Here’s NASA via Open Mind:
Continue reading Climate clippings 169
Using a new model, researchers from the University of Queensland and Griffith University, predict the global average temperature could rise by 1.5°C as early as 2020. The model is based on forecasts of population and economic growth combined with rising per capita energy consumption. Continue reading Climate clippings 166
There’s been a story around that February was the hottest single month ever, and I think the ABC segment quoting Professor David Karoly may have added to the confusion. They spoke of:
preliminary analysis of surface air temperature and comprehensive analysis of satellite-based temperature observations, showing February 2016 had set a new record for the hottest ever February and the hottest ever month in long-term observation. (Emphasis added)
Continue reading February 2016 the hottest (satellite) month