The dominant media narrative has been that the voters continue to desert the main parties, especially the LNP, in droves, mainly to One Nation. Reality is a bit more complex, and recent polls have thrown up other interesting results, like 64% of people overall, and 56% of LNP voters, support a royal commission into banking.
Let’s look at Newspoll first, where Labor has opened up a yawning two-party preferred gap of 55-45, up from 54-46:
Continue reading Poll stuff: the redhead on the surge
A shootout that leaves both damaged, Abbott perhaps more than Turnbull. That’s largely because none of the scribes and commentators have taken account fully of Peta Credlin’s account of the events (paywalled, but Google ‘Peta Credlin IT IS ironic that after a whole week talking about the Adler shotgun’).
I think most people now think that Tony Abbott was lying when he said there was no secret deal between him and David Leyonhjelm in mid-August last year to put a sunset clause on the temporary ban on importing the Adler A110 lever-action shotgun. The sunset clause was said to have been inserted in exchange for votes on migration legislation in a deal Justice Minister Michael Keenan and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton. Not so, says Credlin, because the extension, with sunset clause, had been done weeks earlier, and the fact communicated in the national press. Continue reading Abbott and Turnbull in public shootout
1. Trump’s Plan B, was it Plan A?
It’s generally agreed, I think, that the moderator won the third presidential debate, with Hillary Clinton coming second.
Trump may not have lost, however, because there is talk that Trump may launch himself into the TV business, where no doubt nothing but the truth will be told.
There has been talk about it at Vanity Fair back in June. There was talk at Huffington Post a few days ago. Now it’s in The Economist. Continue reading Saturday salon 22/10
1. George Brandis grabs centre stage
We all know George Brandis is a pompous git. Bernard Keane writes persuasively (pay-walled) that he is an incompetent pompous git, both as a lawyer and as a politician. Labor says that he should resign for misleading parliament, and the lying about lying. Michelle Grattan says there is talk about him getting the shunt, either to the High Court (unlikely – who would wish that on the court?), or to London as high commissioner, as Alexander Downing’s term is coming to an end in May.
Anyway, there is open warfare between Solicitor-General Justin Gleeson and Attorney-General George Brandis. A senate inquiry is working to sort it out, and may save Brandis by disallowing his directive that the advice from the SG should be sought through him, even if it’s the PM or GG. Continue reading Saturday salon 8/10
As we head towards an election Huffington Post reports that the Minor Party Alliance convened by “preference whisperer” Glenn Druery formulated a plan on the weekend to mount an assault in the lower house on marginal Coalition and Green seats.
Druery said it was a series of skirmishes rather than war, as they lack the resources for a full-scale assault. Continue reading Minor Parties declare
war series of skirmishes
1. Cardinal Pell gets a grilling in Rome
Everyone seems to have an opinion about Cardinal Pell’s evidence in Rome to the child sexual abuse royal commission. Most opinions are damning in various ways. I’d recommend ABC RN’s report on their PM program for a detached report, which is not unfairly selective in the pieces it quotes.
Radio National also covered the victims before and after they met with Pell.
Some of them, including David Ridsdale, were positive about the meeting, and Pell agreed to help them further their case for changes in the Catholic Church. Continue reading Saturday salon 5/3
Newspoll came out 53-47 in favour of the LNP, so support for Turnbull looks solid and enduring. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings were a smidgeon better but still disastrous at 57 points behind Turnbull. To make matters worse, internal ALP polling on Bill has been leaked. Continue reading Poll stuff 2/2
1. Mitchell Pearce messes up – again
We really didn’t need to see what Mitchell Pearce did with a dog on a couch. But we did, on the evening news, and it wasn’t pretty.
Peter FitzSimons raises some pertinent questions. Continue reading Saturday salon 30/1
Newspoll has Abbott sinking further into the mire. Essential gives him some hope, but finds Justice Heydon should go. Continue reading Poll stuff 26/8
On Monday night Abbott presided over a cabinet meeting. I heard on Radio National:
The Guardian reports that there was not a single formal Cabinet submission to consider and that has some MPs concerned that the Government’s policy agenda is looking thin.
Continue reading Liberals bicker, Bill gets a lift
It’s happening, he says, through the action of consumers and industry.
“This is a consumer revolution, as much as it is an energy transformation empowering Australian households, communities and businesses,” Shorten said. (It is) putting control back in the hands of the user, shifting the balance away from big power companies.”
Continue reading Climate clippings 151
Three articles from the weekend news media go a long way to sum up the parlous state of politics in Australia.
Guy Rundle has a piece in the Saturday Paper The political caste playing student politics in Canberra which goes a long way to explaining how this state of affairs has come to pass. Continue reading The state of politics: weekend political commentary