1. War gaming Brexit – seven scenarios
A House of Commons vote on Theresa May’s Brexit plan is due on Tuesday, 11 December, if she doesn’t postpone it.
Katy Balls at The Spectator has delineated seven scenarios as to how the Brexit saga will play out. Rule out the first, I think:
- Theresa May squeaks over the line after convincing Brexiteers that it was her deal or no Brexit — and Remainers that it was her deal or a no-deal Brexit.
There would be consequences:
- The DUP then rains on May’s parade. Seething over the backstop, it declares that the confidence and supply agreement is over for good.
1. ScoMo shows how not to govern
Couldn’t resist this Mark David cartoon:
1. Go Victorians!
It was like watching a rugby league State of Origin match when we are 30 points ahead. Pure joy, and you know it’s never going to be this good again!
Daniel Andrews said “they [the voters] have, in record numbers, rejected the low road to fear and division.” There are still votes to count, and we need to wait at least another day to see something close to the final result, but Labor have won the state election in a landslide. On latest figures it looks as though Labor has gone from a majority of one to a majority of near 30. Continue reading Weekly salon 25/11
1. ScoMo on skates
He’s certainly on something. Paddy Manning in The Monthly has an article ScoMo-tion demise: The accidental PM appears accident prone:
As it limps towards the end of 2018, the Morrison government is gradually establishing its own grand narrative – one of staggering ineptitude as it lurches from one self-inflicted crisis to another. On decisions from Jerusalem to Foodbank, there is no overarching purpose here, there is no direction or strategy, there are only missteps and backdowns, seemingly born of the blinkered pursuit of base political advantage, which never materialises. For a PM schooled in marketing, these are textbook fails. For the federal Opposition, the coup against Malcolm Turnbull has proved the gift that keeps on giving.
Today we read, in a Fairfax Media report that has not been denied, that former trade minister Steve Ciobo has privately advised the Indonesian trade minister that there is only a 5 per cent chance that Australia will relocate its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. It is hard to see how the prime minister could have made more of a mess of this: Australia will have managed to offend everybody concerned, to no end.
1. ScoMo’s magical bus tour to the deep north
PM Scott Morrison took a special bus tour up the Queensland Coast, except he flew in a plane because the bus was too slow, and the rest of the time he wanted to talk with Queenslanders, who weren’t to be found in the bus. Then he drank lots of XXXX beer and chomped on pies to show he’s a regular, fair dinkum
guy bloke. Junkee has more, lots more:
1. Has Australian politics jumped the shark?
“Jumped the shark” is not a usual phrase for me, but Urban Dictionary says:
- The beginning of the end. Something is said to have “jumped the shark” when it has reached its peak and begun a downhill slide to mediocrity or oblivion.
Here’s Mark David’s take on Scott Morrison post the Wentworth by-election:
On ABC RN’s The Science Show Robyn Williams spoke to Kate Hughes, Research Assistant in the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney, and Ben Selinger, Emeritus Professor at ANU (transcript available) in the light of the ABC Four Corners program The Monsanto Papers.
Kate Hughes lives in a valley in the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage area. The decision is simple. Either you use glyphosate to counter the Chinese false bamboo, or you have a valley choked with the weed. Continue reading Weekly salon 28/10
I have to work today, helping my 89 year-old and his wife in the wilds of Upper Brookfield. We’ve had rain and you can see the grass grow.
Tonight my son Mark arrives from Sydney, and tomorrow I’m scheduled to do anther largish lawn because my ute is scheduled for repairs on Monday. So this is a quickie Salon ahead of the Wentworth by-election. Continue reading Weekly salon 20/10
That’s the message from Malcolm Turnbull’s son Alex:
- “This (leadership spill) isn’t exactly a first for Australian politics, but it does lead you to the conclusion that a stable government might not be as stable as some people would like you to think,” he said.
“To me, this particular event seems to show the Liberal party has been taken over, frankly from extremists on the hard right who aren’t particularly motivated to win an election and aren’t particularly motivated to serve the general public – they just want to pursue a crazy agenda.”
1. Kavanaugh makes it, but…
2. Fat rich banks not “unquestionably strong”
3. Humans a pestilence upon the earth?
4. A new low for Trump
5. Wentworth in play
1. Richard di Natale made a speech
2. Hayne blasts big banks
3. Facebook shuts Fraser Anning down
4. Brett Kavanaugh vs Christine Blasey Ford