“Emissions increased the chances of seeing a summer as hot as 2017’s by at least a factor of 10”.
According to the New Scientist (pay-walled), that is the kind of information we could soon be getting with our evening weather report.
Better climate models and faster computers will soon give timely information which once took years about the human influence on significant weather events. Climate scientists used to say that it was impossible to attribute any specific weather event to climate change in real time. However, the science of climate attribution has matured. The World Weather Attribution project was able to make the above statement about the weather from June to August in 2017 by the following month in September.
Now scientists say they can connect individual weather events with the impact of human-made greenhouse gas emissions quite rapidly. In other words we could show that what’s going on outside someone’s window is directly linked to climate change.
It’s still a work in progress, but:
- Soon we should be able to answer that question quickly, thanks to a collaboration between European meteorological agencies dubbed EUPHEME. The aim is for your daily weather report to include information about how global warming influenced very recent or ongoing events. Those involved in the project say a prototype should be up and running next year. The Australian meteorological bureau is looking to develop a similar programme. (Emphasis added)
Those who follow climate science know that Hansen got it right. However, people have been complaining about the weather forever, and a common meme is “the weather is always changing”.
My father said that after World War 1 people thought all the artillery used in the war had changed the weather. In the 1950s there was a common belief that nuclear explosions had done the same.
Now records are being broken regularly, but a definite attribution delivered regularly could do much to change people’s consciousness of the all-pervading effect wrought by constantly dumping GHGs into the atmosphere in reckless disregard for the existential risks they pose.
It will be interesting to see if the Australian BOM provides the service whether the ABC and other media outlets take it up, and what the reaction would be generated from the aggressive sceptics/contrarians.