Poll stuff 17/6: Lowy Institute edition

The Oz headlines Bill Shorten in its Newspoll report, and not in a good way. 54% are dissatisfied with his performance, only two less than Tony Abbott. But surprisingly 34% now think Abbott is doing a good job, compared to only 28% for Shorten. This gives Shorto a net satisfaction rating of -26 to Abbott’s -22.

Yet the Fairfax Ipsos poll reports “PM Disapproval Up” with Abbott at -14 and Shorten at only -6.

Go figure.

In the two party preferred stakes, Newspoll comes in at 51-49 for Labor, Essential Report has Labor 52-48, Fairfax Ipsos 53-47 and Roy Morgan a whopping 54.5-45.5. Roy Morgan asks Green and ‘other’ voters about their preferences whereas Newspoll allocates them as per the last election. I’d suggest this might be problematic in Newspoll as the Green vote is high, at 14% compared to 8.7% in the election.

Trust in politicians

Michelle Grattan reminds us that:

    In the latest Essential poll, just 11% have some or a lot of trust in politicians and 49% have no trust.

She suggests politicians do little to earn our trust, reviewing Labor’s internal ructions in the ABC program The Killing Season. Then she gets stuck into the Abbott Government:

    we don’t know whether that government will prosper or crash.

    But we’ve seen its style so far, and it is not one that has made the public think better of politicians. It has been notable for the trashing of trust with broken promises, wilful misrepresentations when convenient, and an us-versus-them mentality (“them” defined very widely) that’s sharp and often vindictive.

    Its ruthless and expedient approach is on display as Abbott ramps up national security as an issue.

Marriage equality

Fairfax Ipsos asked a question about legalising same-sex marriage. Support is at highest ever levels:

Gay marriage_cropped_600

Housing affordability

Fairfax Ipsos also asked about housing affordability for first-time home buyers. In Sydney 18% said it was affordable and 80% said it was not. For all capital cities the numbers were 29% and 69%.

Lowy Institute’s 2015 poll

Here are the key findings:

  • This year’s Poll has recorded the lowest feeling of safety among Australians, and the sharpest decline in optimism about the nation’s economic performance in the world, in our 11-year polling history.
  • A majority (69%) see Islamic State as a high risk to Australia’s security, and 69% support Australia’s military participation in Iraq, while only 20% think it makes Australia safer from terrorism in the future.
  • The Poll has recorded the third consecutive rise in Australians’ concern about global warming.

Here’s our sagging feeling about Australia’s economic prospects:

Economic prospects_cropped

Here’s what we think about global warming:

Global warming_cropped_600

The dark blue says it’s “serious and pressing” and we should act even if significant costs are incurred.

The light blue says the effects are gradual and we can deal with the problem gradually with steps that are low cost (Abbott style?)

The orange says we should wait until we know more.

Here people were asked what would be our primary electricity source in 10 years time, charted against the current actual:

Electricity futures_cropped_b_600

The people expect solar to displace coal, please note all pollies!

There’s discussion about the Lowy poll at the ABC, at the SMH, at The Drum and at The Conversation.

One thought on “Poll stuff 17/6: Lowy Institute edition”

  1. Poll Bludger says the Fairfax Ipsos comes out at 54-46 for Labour when voters were asked what they would do with their preferences. He thinks the whole pattern of polling is distinctly negative for the Abbott government.

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