Newspoll has the LNP on a comfortable lead of 52-48 on TPP terms. Last week Fairfax-Ipsos came in at 53-47, which is landslide territory.
If you go to Fairfax Polls and click on “Poll of polls” and go to last week, you’ll find that Labor averaged 46.7 across the polls. Roy Morgan has been the most negative for Labor.
In the Better Prime Minister stakes, Turnbull leads Shorten by a staggering 63 to 17 in Newspoll, nearly as low as Turnbull himself was in 2009, when as opposition leader he fell to 14%. Brendan Nelson had been at 7%.
The other performance measure is when voters are asked whether the PM and leader of the opposition are doing a good job. Here Turnbull has a net satisfaction level of 35 (58% are satisfied and 23% dissatisfied), while Shorten is negative 32 (26% satisfied and 58% dissatisfied).
Roy Morgan finds that Shorten is now fourth as preferred Labor leader after Plibersek, Albanese and Swan:
- Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek 27% (up 1%) of electors is still the preferred Labor Leader ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 23% (up 4%), former Treasurer Wayne Swan 10% (unchanged) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 9% (down 3%).
Tanya Plibersek 34% (up 2%) is also preferred amongst ALP supporters ahead of Anthony Albanese 21% (up 5%), Wayne Swan 12% (up 3%) and Bill Shorten 10% (down 7%).
Last Monday Tim Dunlop at The Drum wrote of the trauma inflicted on us by Tony Abbott:
- Mr Abbott was damaging our collective soul, making us feel bad about ourselves, hitting us between the eyes with the bullet we dodged by not electing Mark Latham.
Nearly everything Mr Abbott did left people in despair: his first budget; his onion eating; his reintroduction of knighthoods, and then giving one of them to Prince Philip; his winking; his endless broken promises; his hyper-masculine attitude; his craven use of national security; his national-flag orgy every time he had a press conference; his instinct to treat opponents as enemies; his instinct to divide the nation; his flicking tongue; his inability to articulate anything remotely like a vision for the country.
Shorten was never much more popular or esteemed that Tony Abbott, and I think is going to have a problem cutting through. On RN Drive on Monday Shorten spoke with Patricia Karvelas, showing, I thought, an impressive mastery of detail and general good sense, but was almost impossible to listen to.
A lot can happen between now and the election, but a change of Labor leadership is unlikely.
Lenore Taylor thinks Turnbull is vulnerable on policy, because of the policies he inherited and the disposition of the party he leads. Intellectually I think Shorten is up for the debate, but falls short in rhetorical skills and personality.
Elsewhere, Michelle Grattan has a neat summary of Newspoll.