Voters wanting to elect a party of an independent other than the LNP or Labor, or indeed the Greens, are more likely to do so in the senate. Kevin Bonham says:
- Nationally, the overall “Others” vote is up only slightly in the Reps (12.88% from 12.42%) but it is up from 23.54% to 25.70% in the Senate.
Tim Colebatch points out that we had 54 parties or combinations of parties running for the senate, and 631 candidates for the 76 seats. People voting for something different want their vote to mean something, so how is the new senate shaping up?
William Bowe (Poll Bludger) thinks (paywalled) it “looks no less problematic for the government than the one that preceded it.” Indeed it is likely to be more so.
His table won’t copy well, so here’s the story.
He thinks the LNP have won 30 seats, with a further 2 seats possible (WA and Tasmania), but not likely.
He thinks Labor has won 26, with a further one (Tasmania) likely.
The Greens have 7 with a further 2 likely, in WA and Tasmania.
Xenephon should win 3 in SA.
One Nation will won one in each of Qld, NSW and WA.
Jacqui Lambie and Derryn Hinch should be there.
The Liberal Democrats should win one in Qld, and are likely to pip Fred Nile for the last seat in NSW.
An extra National is possible in WA, more likely is a second Green.
If an extra LNP gets up in Tasmania it would be at the expense of the second Green.
The likely outcome from all that is LNP 30 (5 National), 27 Labor, 9 Greens and 10 on the crossbench, with 3 each to One Nation and Xenephon.
So in terms of getting legislation through, needing 39 votes, if the Government doesn’t make common ground with Labor, it should be able to get laws through with the Greens – just. Otherwise it is likely to need 9 out of 10 of the crossbench, meaning they couldn’t avoid One Nation.
Labor and the Greens in order to block legislation would need the assistance of 3 from the crossbench. That puts Xenephon in a powerful position.
Tim Colebatch’s article provides useful analysis (thanks John D for the link). He celebrates the diversity of choice now offered, which has increased vastly in the post-war years. The main story this time, however, is the demise of Palmer United and the rise of Xenephon and One Nation.
He calculates that on the left, leaving aside the Greens, (8.3% on the latest count), some 17 other left-of-centre parties won 5.2%.
The right is quite fractured:
- On the right, twelve small parties together shared 12.8 per cent. By far the largest was Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (4.3 per cent). Others included the Liberal Democrats (2.0), the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (1.4), Family First (1.3), the Christian Democrats (1.2), the Democratic Labor Party (0.7) and Katter’s Australian Party (0.4).
Uniting them would require a charismatic figure as a necessary condition. We know it isn’t Clive Palmer or Bob Katter – it’s unlikely to be Pauline Hanson. We don’t have a Nigel Farage or Marine Le Pen in sight.
The Greens have survived their initial charismatic leader (Bob Brown), whereas the Democrats did not end up surviving the departure of Don Chipp.
In most states there is still more than 20% of the senate vote to be counted, and I understand that will take a further two weeks, so the preference flows could change a bit.
Meanwhile the HoR result now has 76 LNP, 68 Labor, one each to the Greens and Xenephon and 3 independents. One seat, Herbert, is in doubt with the LNP ahead by 34 votes, and I believe about 3000 to be counted.
It looks as thought Turnbull will lose 13 seats and Labor pick up 13 seats.
If this is the case, on my calculations the Government would need 36 senate votes to pass legislation in a double dissolution joint sitting. Possible, with amendments.
The only post-election poll I’m aware of is Essential, which has the majors 50-50. The most significant change is that Turnbull’s approval rating has turned sharply negative, now on a net -11 after being +33 last December.
In the same space Shorten has moved from -20 to -2.