Tag Archives: David Archer

Experts have a say on sea level rise

The recent IPCC report estimated sea level rise (SLR) thus:

SLR by 2100_cropped

For the scenario RCP8.5 (the most likely) the rise by the year 2100 is 0.52 to 0.98m, with medium confidence.

A new study (Horton, Engelhart and Kemp) asked experts in the subject for their view. For the RCP8.5 scenario they came up with 0.7 to 1.2m, as shown here:


Fully 65% of experts expect SLR greater than the IPCC forecasts.

The dotted lines on that graph represent NOAA projections of December 2012.

Meanwhile if, against the odds, we can hold temperature rise to about 2°C, then what happened during the last interglacial, the Eemian, has some relevance. This from the IPCC report: Continue reading Experts have a say on sea level rise

Climate clippings 61

David Archer on methane

Arctic methane plumes

Climate clippings 58 led with an item on Methane worries. @ 18 I identified David Archer as one who is “very knowledgeable on the matter [and] thinks the process will be chronic rather than catastrophic.” Continue reading Climate clippings 61