Dr Kevin Bonham has a post Abbott Fastest Ever To Lose Poll Lead with this helpful advance summary:
- 1. Following the recent Newspoll, the new Abbott Government has lost the two-party preferred polling lead.
- 2. This does not necessarily mean the government would lose an election if one was held now.
- 3. The Abbott Government has lost the 2PP polling lead much faster than any other new government elected from Opposition in federal polling history.
- 4. Tony Abbott has also recorded negative personal ratings much faster than any new PM elected from Opposition in federal polling history.
- 5. While polling taken at this stage has very little if any predictive value, governments that have lost the lead very early in their terms have a historically greater risk of defeat at the next election.
- 6. Bill Shorten’s polling as Opposition Leader appears good, but is nothing unusual by the standards of other Opposition Leaders at the same stages of their careers.
- 7. Furthermore the strength or otherwise of an Opposition Leader’s personal polling after only two months in the job has no relationship with their success at later elections.
I’ll leave you to read the rest.
Michaela McGuire at The Monthly comments on the commenters commenting on Dennis Shanahan’s comentary on the polls. It seems Shanahan’s readers if he says something they don’t expect from him just translate it into what they want to hear. Has Shanahan become a Labor stooge?
Bolt is so in tune with his readers that he just winds them up and off they go. It’s all entirely predictable.
Bolt, canny operator that he is, has clearly realised that his flock doesn’t need too much tending. Instead, he can merely wind them up and watch them go. At this stage of his career, Australia’s most widely read columnist has become so successful that he’s made himself redundant. As long as he has a comments section, he doesn’t even have to be a scaremongering pundit, just a fluffer.
Unsurprisingly, Abbott has given himself a gold star and a koala stamp, presumably. (Readers younger than about 70 may not recognise this ancient way of rewarding excellence in primary school.)
Certainly I’m prejudiced, but Abbott often looks to me like a primate in a suit:
The Tandberg cartoon is a beauty:
Tony Wright thinks we have a government on training wheels. That’s optimistic and assumes this mob are trainable.
Mark Textor in the AFR today is reminding us that an stage win of the green jersey doesn’t count. It’s who’s wearing the yellow jersey at the end. Well we know that. Boring! See point 5 from Bonham.
Meanwhile, three months after the election in Germany, the SPD membership have voted in favour a ‘grand coalition’ with 76% in favour. I understand the party members had access to a large document detailing the policies to be adopted (168 pages, from memory). Couldn’t happen here.