Newspoll, which is the poll pollies are said to take notice of, moved from 52-48 in favour of Labor to 53-47 after the budget. Not that you’d know from ABC radio, which was spruiking the Fairax/Ipsos poll which came in at 50-50. A month ago it was 54-46 in favour of Labor.
Fairax/Ipsos has gone from being an outlier in one direction to being an outlier in the other.
Roy Morgan has Labor ahead 51-49, closing from 53.5-46.5 two weeks ago.
Essential Report gives it to Labor 52-48, the same as last week.
From The Poll Bludger, ReachTel’s phone poll on budget night favoured Labor 53-47 and post-budget Galaxy has Labor 52-48.
I don’t know what to make of Fairfax/Ipsos. It seems to lurch from one extreme to the other. If you take it out of the equation, the only clear move is a trend to parity in Roy Morgan over the last eight fortnightly polls.
Another statement that can safely be made is that the LNP’s support comes from the old and males, the young and females tend to favour Labor.
According to Newspoll, the budget was the best received since Swan’s 2008 effort, with 46% saying it was good for the Australian economy and 28% bad. The respective figures last year were 39% and 48%. Poll Bludger puts the current budget reaction in the middle of the historical range.
Essential asked a different question – whether voters approved or disapproved of the way the LNP government was handling the federal budget. They found that 34% approved and 33% disapproved. Last year the figures were 30-52.
Again approval comes from the old, and from men, women are underwhelmed. Further than that, support heavily follows party lines – 77% of LNP voters give it a tick, but only 29% of Labor voters.
Abbott’s stocks are clearly rising. Newspoll has his net approval rating improving from -43 in February to only -13 now. Shorten has gone from -14 to -9.
Abbott v Shorten has gone from 35-43 in February to 41-40 now. Fairax/Ipsos sees the figures move from 34-50 to 44-39.
Roy Morgan has a Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”). On May 16/17 the result was 99.5, up from 89 before the budget and the best result since October last year.
Essential asked whether Australia’s economy was heading in the right or wrong direction.
35% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction and 40% think it is heading in the wrong direction. This represents no significant change since this question was asked last August.
Essential asks a range of questions about the budget and it’s impact. A stand-out is that 50% agree and only 19% disagree with the statement that “this budget is more about improving the Government’s popularity than improving the economy”.
Three months ago Abbott after knighting Prince Philip was gone for all money and his government was looking very much like a one-term aberration. Now Abbott is definitely back and so is his government. Barrie Cassidy said the purpose of the budget was to get back into the political game after a miserable 12 months, and it might just work. It seems it has, but not brilliantly. Many voters can see that the budget was more about politics than economics, as do the commentariat.
Three months ago Guy Rundle was full of schadenfreude as he watched the government destroy itself. Now he has chucked in the towel. Shorten must go and Labor needs to get a deal together which will make the lives of middle Australia better.
Before the budget Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack gave it to Labor 52.2 to 47.8. I’d suggest it would be close to 52-48 now. If Abbott has shown us anything it’s that we can elect a prime minister we don’t particularly like. Rundle places great weight on incumbency, especially for the right. He seems to agree with Abbott that if he started an election campaign 48-52 behind he would win.
I’m not so sure. Now if Bill Shorten would go back to talking like a human being, instead of firing off zingers his staff think up…
Elsewhere Michelle Grattan thinks Abbott has turned into timid Tony:
Abbott used to describe himself as a weathervane on climate policy but now that’s been extended to nearly everything.
OTOH Hockey has damaged himself in a way that is probably unrepairable.