Too hot for comfort (or complacency)

The figures are now official, 2015 was the hottest year on record:

    Global surface temperature in 2015 was +0.87°C (~1.6°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 base period in the GISTEMP analysis, making 2015 the warmest year in the period of instrumental data.
    Global temperature in 2015 was +1.13°C (~2.03°F) relative to the 1880-1920 mean.

That was from Hansen et al.

Here’s the NASA/NOAA joint announcement and here’s the NASA press release.

This graph is from RealClimate:


In case you still think there was a pause, RealClimate provides the trend lines:


Hansen and co tell us that only two models got the prediction right. Most got it wrong.

The UK Met Office’s Prof Adam Scaife told Carbon Brief that rising greenhouse gases and a “small contribution” from the El Niño in the Pacific combined to cause the record temperatures in 2015.

    Overall, we expect El Niño to contribute around 25% to what will most likely be a new record global temperature in 2016.

Then if as expected there’s a La Niña, things might go quiet for a while.

This map shows us how the warming was spread over the planet:


Quite noticeable is the cool spot over the North Atlantic, and the warming of the northern hemisphere high latitude continental areas. Australia was not so bad, but as Liz Hanna explains, Australia has a head start. Our average air temperature over land (1961–1990) was 21.8°C, compared to a global land temperature of 8.5°C. Apparently 11°C is optimal for human physical performance.

There’s more at The Conversation, and, as you’d expect, at the Climate Council.

Did you know that no-one aged under 40 has lived in a year with global average temperatures at or below the global 20th century average?

You would know that as we speak a huge snowstorm, dubbed Jonas, Snowzilla, and Make Winter Great Again, has enveloped the east coast of the USA.

4 thoughts on “Too hot for comfort (or complacency)”

  1. You can hear the protests of the Climate Change Deniers from here.

    “The scientists were bribed by (( here insert the name of your favourite anti-social or anti-business group ))”. …. or, “It’s a Communist plot”.

    Seriously though, local and regional deviations from a trend are expected – so the major snowstorms in North America are not really surprising …. and they certainly do not prove at all that climate change is a load of cobblers, as some people around here are saying.

  2. Graham, a cold January was being forecast while the record December heat was in progress. It’s hard to see how the deniers can keep denying.

  3. wmbb, thanks for the link.

    I notice the story is from March. I think there’s a problem with the shape of map they use wrt to Antarctica. Whatever’s going on tends to become lost.

Comments are closed.