Tag Archives: opinion polls

Saturday salon 15/10

1. Australian managers are second rate

Martin Parkinson, head of the PM’s department, told CEDA what we need to do to become truly innovative.

What caught my eye was what he said about Australian management in manufacturing:

Saturday salon 4/9

1. Stunt of the week

Labor took control of the House of Representatives on Thursday evening in an attempt to pass a resolution to set up a banking royal commission. Eventually the Government mustered enough numbers to shut it down after losing three procedural votes.

It was a timely warning to the Government that their control of the House is fragile and Labor is going to play hardball.

An angry Malcolm Turnbull says the Government was “embarrassed, humiliated, excoriated”. Continue reading Saturday salon 4/9

Important messages from the polls

The AFR Fairfax-Ipsos page helpfully reminds us that Kim Beazley gained 50.98% of the vote in the 1998 election but did not win. So with the two-party preferred vote now at 51-49 to the LNP, officially it’s too close to call. Anyway that slight lead is offset by Newspoll which came in at 51-49 to Labor for the fourth time in a row. So a couple of weeks of electioneering appear to have made no difference overall. Yet there are, I think, some important messages to be mined from the polls.

Firstly, the voters in Queensland are grumpy. Continue reading Important messages from the polls

Narrow Turnbull win could be a nightmare

While it is far too early for polls to be genuinely predictive, a new crunching of the numbers has produced a plausible scenario where the crossbench including Xenephon will simply be irrelevant, and the Greens alone will hold the balance of power in the Senate if numbers are fairly even in the HoR.

Metapoll intends to do polling of voters intentions for the senate, as will no doubt other pollsters. Meanwhile they have analysed recent polls by other organisations and inferred from them a senate result using the NSW upper house election data as a proxy for preference flows, as its voting system is most similar to the new senate voting laws. This is how it came out: Continue reading Narrow Turnbull win could be a nightmare

Turnbull, and his party, on the slide

824063-malcolm-turnbull_cropped_225The honeymoon is over, the shine has come off, the political capital accruing to a new leader has been dissipated. Now it’s not just a matter of how many seats Turnbull will lose, Labor has a real chance.

That’s been the reaction to the latest Newspoll result (paywalled), which has Labor ahead 51-49 for the first time since Turnbull became PM. Labor winning 30 Newspolls in a row was one of the reasons Turnbull said that Abbott had to go. Continue reading Turnbull, and his party, on the slide

Should Bill Shorten give up?

Newspoll has the LNP on a comfortable lead of 52-48 on TPP terms. Last week Fairfax-Ipsos came in at 53-47, which is landslide territory.

If you go to Fairfax Polls and click on “Poll of polls” and go to last week, you’ll find that Labor averaged 46.7 across the polls. Roy Morgan has been the most negative for Labor. Continue reading Should Bill Shorten give up?