Trump victory slipping away

At around 11pm on 8 November Eastern Standard Time in Australia this is how the polling looked to Nate Silver:


The late trend is to Clinton. Alan Kohler said tonight if Trump wins the sharemarket will drop like a stone. If Clinton wins nothing happens – it’s already priced in.

Clinton is now a 72% chance of winning. She had been as low as 64%. This is how he sees the states:

He says that Nevada, North Carolina and Florida flipped from red to blue over the course of Monday. Florida is now a 54% chance of going to Clinton. I reckon that if she wins Florida it’s over.

With the magic number of electoral college votes being 271, Guy Rundle at Crikey thinks Clinton could win 320 to Trump’s 220. He sees six possible paths to victory for Trump:

    To win, Trump has to get either 1) Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with no losses back; 2) Florida, Ohio and two or three smaller states; 3) Florida and four states without Ohio; 4) Ohio, Pennsylvania and a couple of states; 5) Ohio and about five states and districts; or 6) about six states without Florida or Ohio. All of the last five options assume no losses back to the Democrats.

    That would suggest that Trump has more pathways to victory than has been claimed — and he does. But they’re all very narrow paths, and everything has to go right on each pathway. Clinton only has to get one clawback — North Carolina is the best bet — and a couple of the other states, and she can weather a loss of several states.

Here’s how Silver sees the map:


News 24 and ABC radio will have live coverage from 10:00am AEDT. There are six time zones across the US and 13 states that have split time zones. I reckon we could have a good idea of the result by about midday with a bit of luck. If Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida go to Clinton, then Trump is toast.

There’s a new whiz kid on the block in election forecasting in the person of Sam Wang, a professor of neurosciences in Princeton. He has distorted the map to show the electoral college voting:


He deals with uncertainty in a different way to Silver, and has built up a bit of a record. Anyway:

    This year, Wang called the election at 8:55 PM on October 18. He promised to eat more than just his hat if Clinton loses: “It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug,” Wang tweeted to his 23,000 followers. He expects Clinton to receive at least 298 electoral votes.

That was before the FBI re-opened the investigation of Clinton’s emails.

Just for fun, the last Trump claim checked by PolitiFact was:

    “Beyonce and Jay Z, I like them, I like them … I get bigger crowds than they do. It’s true. I get far bigger crowds.”

He doesn’t.

If she loses, I think Hillary Clinton will go quietly. As she says, she’s lost before.

If Trump loses he will go noisily, the better to crank up his TV venture.

Juan Cole looks at The Hatred that Trump’s Lies will Leave Behind.

I just hope with John D that out of the rubble new parties emerge that were more in line with the needs of modern America.

16 thoughts on “Trump victory slipping away”

  1. What US voters are concerned about

    The poll, which will be updated as additional responses are tallied and votes are counted, found:

    75 per cent agree that “America needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful”
    72 per cent agree “the American economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful”
    68 per cent agree that “traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me”
    76 per cent believe “the mainstream media is more interested in making money than telling the truth”
    57 per cent feel that “more and more, I don’t identify with what America has become”
    54 per cent feel “it is increasingly hard for someone like me to get ahead in America”
    The Reuters/Ipsos online opinion poll was conducted on Election Day in English in all 50 states.

    That is a lot of pissed off people that the next president will have to deal with.

  2. The Courier Mail results on line seems to be producing sense and being kept up to date. Key comment at 10:50:


    Donald Trump is currently leading in both electoral votes and the raw popular vote, but the signs are not looking good for him.

    States that should be safely Republican, such as Georgia and South Carolina, are closer than they should be from Mr Trump’s point of view. He’s also running behind down-ballot Republicans in key states – Marco Rubio is doing better than Mr Trump in Florida, and Rob Portman is outperforming him in Ohio.
    High female turnout across the board is also favouring Ms Clinton. Mr Trump is winning the male vote by a large margin, but losing the female vote big time.

  3. That looks good coverage, John.

    On ABC channel 2 they have Antony Green on the job. He is able to allocate states we know aren’t going to change before the counting is done, or even the voting, not allowed in the US. It gives a better look at how the race is going.

    Still early and confusing.

    There has been a shooting with one dead at a polling booth in California.

  4. It looks as though Florida has gone to Trump and he looks good for Ohio. The latest is that he is looking the more likely to win!

    I think I’ll do something else for an hour.

  5. I drew a lot of comfort from the early voting of Latinos in Florida, which I thought might bring Clinton home there, and Florida was a ‘must win’ for Trump. It seems that was where the wall was breached.

    6% of voters in Florida are Cubans, and over the years they have been steadily turning Republican. In 2012 they were still slightly Democrat.

    This time there was a 14% swing to Republican within that group, equating to enough votes for Trump to win.

    The other general observation is that blacks and Latinos came out in slightly lower proportions than in 2012, which was a good result for Clinton, considering she’s not Obama. However, the increased turnout has been white, and other factors aside like education levels and gender, overall whites have been voting Republican by a significant margin. I’d have to do research to fill in the numbers.

    So Clinton could still win by a very thin margin, and Antony Green says that when the votes in the west come in she’ll probably win the popular national vote, but it’s looking like Trump, the Senate and the HoR all Republican, and he gets next pick on the Supreme Court.

    All the ducks in a row.

    And Trump gets to run the bureaucracy, the armed forces and foreign policy.

    It’s going to be a rough ride unless we get a miracle and a last minute reprieve.

    And bad behaviour will have been rewarded.

  6. Will they allow Bill and Hillary to occupy adjoining cells in the Federal Penitentiary?

    Just wondering.

  7. It looks as if Hillary has taken her Party down with her……

    The outcome predicted earlier was that The Donald would fail, and take down with him a set of Republican candidates who had allied themselves closely with The Donald.

    Possibly, it wasn’t a terrific idea to call his supporters “a basket of deplorables”.

    Just a suggestion.

  8. You’d have to say that Bernie Sanders would have brought out the vote better that the Democrats needed.

    But Jumpy, I think she still would have won if it had not been for Comey, the FBI and Wikileaks piling into her.

    We were told on the ABC that for just about ever, maybe ever, only once has the same party won three times in a row. That was George H W Bush after Reagan. So in that sense she did well, just not well enough.

  9. I’m more interested in how and why the polls keep skewing left.
    Almost everyone got it wrong.
    The media, the pollsters, the political scientists, the punters, other politicians……

    On wikileaks; he was a Dem champion when he was dumping on Bush. Looks like he attacks them all if he’s given the dirt.

  10. Jumpy, I honestly don’t know. I think they do their best.

    Secretary Clinton has phoned Trump and conceded. Podesta appeared at the Democrat ‘victory’ party at 2am and told them all to go home.

    Trump gave a very conciliatory speech, and promised a glorious future for everyone, a major infrastructure program to rebuild America and good jobs for all.

    I think the people who have the most to fear on a personal level are probably inside the Republican Party.

    Much will depend on the people around him.

  11. It is not all that long ago that the Democrats were the Labor party of the US. In the South the Democrats were also the party of racism just like the Labor party was when it was the champion of the white Aus policy.
    However, somewhere along the line it changed. It became the champion of the free markets that did a lot of damage to many working class families. It became the champion of gender and racial equality to the annoyance of many of its old supporters. The list goes on.
    I am not suggesting that the Democrats can or should go back to what they were but they need to take a lot more notice of the working class and take a hard nosed look at what their support for free market globalization has done to many of their previous supporters.
    Recent years have also shown just how easy it has been for the old Republican party to lose control of their party to the religious right, then Tea Party and now Trump the independent opportunist.
    There also appears to be a need for electoral reform to make it easier for the winner to be the one who wins the two party preferred vote and to return congress and the Senate into houses that are less likely than the deadlocked mess that they became during the Obama years.

  12. I assume the Secret Service will have taken Trump under its wing, now that he’s the President-elect. He’s made a lot of promises that he’ll never be able to keep to a bunch of very angry dudes with guns. Buyer’s remorse could be fatal for him.

  13. That is my prediction too, zoot. How long has it been since a good old fashioned presidential assasination? The list of agrieved parties will be long, and include a hefty clutch drug carteliers.

    The US has just elected their very first African Style cleptocrat class President, and handed him absolute power. Its Brexit all over again. Tomorrow will be full of “we didn’t mean to do that, we were just trying to send a message”.

  14. Billie Bush, from his magnum opus

    In Conversation with Donald J. Trump

    “The Donald has scored!!!”

    Prophet or sycophant, you be the judge.

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