At around 11pm on 8 November Eastern Standard Time in Australia this is how the polling looked to Nate Silver:
The late trend is to Clinton. Alan Kohler said tonight if Trump wins the sharemarket will drop like a stone. If Clinton wins nothing happens – it’s already priced in.
Clinton is now a 72% chance of winning. She had been as low as 64%. This is how he sees the states:
He says that Nevada, North Carolina and Florida flipped from red to blue over the course of Monday. Florida is now a 54% chance of going to Clinton. I reckon that if she wins Florida it’s over.
With the magic number of electoral college votes being 271, Guy Rundle at Crikey thinks Clinton could win 320 to Trump’s 220. He sees six possible paths to victory for Trump:
- To win, Trump has to get either 1) Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with no losses back; 2) Florida, Ohio and two or three smaller states; 3) Florida and four states without Ohio; 4) Ohio, Pennsylvania and a couple of states; 5) Ohio and about five states and districts; or 6) about six states without Florida or Ohio. All of the last five options assume no losses back to the Democrats.
That would suggest that Trump has more pathways to victory than has been claimed — and he does. But they’re all very narrow paths, and everything has to go right on each pathway. Clinton only has to get one clawback — North Carolina is the best bet — and a couple of the other states, and she can weather a loss of several states.
Here’s how Silver sees the map:
News 24 and ABC radio will have live coverage from 10:00am AEDT. There are six time zones across the US and 13 states that have split time zones. I reckon we could have a good idea of the result by about midday with a bit of luck. If Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida go to Clinton, then Trump is toast.
There’s a new whiz kid on the block in election forecasting in the person of Sam Wang, a professor of neurosciences in Princeton. He has distorted the map to show the electoral college voting:
He deals with uncertainty in a different way to Silver, and has built up a bit of a record. Anyway:
- This year, Wang called the election at 8:55 PM on October 18. He promised to eat more than just his hat if Clinton loses: “It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug,” Wang tweeted to his 23,000 followers. He expects Clinton to receive at least 298 electoral votes.
That was before the FBI re-opened the investigation of Clinton’s emails.
Just for fun, the last Trump claim checked by PolitiFact was:
- “Beyonce and Jay Z, I like them, I like them … I get bigger crowds than they do. It’s true. I get far bigger crowds.”
If she loses, I think Hillary Clinton will go quietly. As she says, she’s lost before.
If Trump loses he will go noisily, the better to crank up his TV venture.
Juan Cole looks at The Hatred that Trump’s Lies will Leave Behind.
I just hope with John D that out of the rubble new parties emerge that were more in line with the needs of modern America.