Tag Archives: USA elections 2016

How Trump won: the real story

Nate Silver, editor in chief at FiveThirtyEight, has been thinking about this issue for two and a half months, and has come up with perhaps the best analysis I’ve seen to date in The Real Story Of 2016: What reporters — and lots of data geeks, too — missed about the election, and what they’re still getting wrong.

Silver’s primary focus is on how the press covered the election, and how it is reflecting now on what happened. However, he puts his finger on some of the key factors. Continue reading How Trump won: the real story

How Trump won, but what does it mean?

The numbers are now in. Trump won with a little help from the Russians, and the Chinese are definitely on the front foot in the South China Sea.

Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation has the final count.

    Clinton won the overall popular vote by 65.84 million votes, to 62.98 million for Trump, a difference of 2.86 million. Clinton’s raw vote was down only slightly from Obama’s 65.92 million in 2012, while Trump was over 2 million above Mitt Romney’s vote.

    In percentage terms, Clinton won 48.1%, to Trump’s 46.0%, a 2.1% popular vote win, compared with Obama’s 3.9% win over Romney. Libertarian Gary Johnson won 3.3% and Green Jill Stein 1.1%.

Continue reading How Trump won, but what does it mean?

Wallerstein on the consequences of Trump

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, speaks during the final day of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Thursday, July 21, 2016. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, speaks during the final day of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Thursday, July 21, 2016. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Immanuel Wallerstein, the sociologist who gave us World Systems Theory, has devoted his latest commentary to the consequences of a Trump victory. (From the end of the month it will appear as Commentary 437 in the archive.)

Domestically he says it doesn’t matter how much he won by or whether he won the primary vote. He won.

What is more he won the trifecta – the Presidency, Congress and the Supreme Court. Continue reading Wallerstein on the consequences of Trump

Trump triumphs, but who voted for him?

The American people have voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump, right? Wrong.

On latest figures 59,821,874 or 47.4% of the eligible voting population voted for Trump. Hillary Clinton attracted 60,121.876 votes, or 47.7%. That’s around 300,000 more. In a democratic system where all votes have equal value, we’d be celebrating a win for Secretary Clinton. [See Update 1 below]

Wikipedia shows turnout down from 54.9% to 51.3%. So only 24.4% of the eligible voting population of 245.273 million in fact voted for Trump, or around 30% of registered voters. Continue reading Trump triumphs, but who voted for him?

China to Trump: wise men don’t sneer at climate change

Time to look seriously at what a Trump presidency would do to climate change.

As this article says:

    China and the United States don’t need to go to war to destroy civilization as we know it.

    They just need to keep pumping the skies full of carbon dioxide for 75 more years, slowly turning much of the planet into a wasteland.

Continue reading China to Trump: wise men don’t sneer at climate change

Trumpism: bigger than Trump?

trump_03-donald-trump-democracy-threat-w710-h473-2x_250Paul Waldman in The Washington Post warns Republicans are now vowing Total War. And the consequences could be immense. This warning is coming from multiple sources and has to be taken seriously.

Republicans, it seems, will deny the legitimacy of a Hillary Clinton presidency. They have actually been saying that she would have no mandate because people would only vote for her to avoid Trump. They will immediately take steps for Congress to impeach her, will not co-operate on any legislation she might propose and will refuse to endorse any appointments she might seek to make to the Supreme Court.

That is, of course, assuming that she wins. Continue reading Trumpism: bigger than Trump?

FBI bombshell, or storm in a teacup?

Or is it an entirely inappropriate intervention in the political process by a public official?

clinton

At the end of the working week we were cruising to a perhaps anticlimactic finish to the presidential campaign when a letter from FBI Director James B. Comey advised Congress that the agency would once again be examining emails related to Clinton’s time as secretary of state. Continue reading FBI bombshell, or storm in a teacup?

Saturday salon 22/10

1. Trump’s Plan B, was it Plan A?

It’s generally agreed, I think, that the moderator won the third presidential debate, with Hillary Clinton coming second.

Trump may not have lost, however, because there is talk that Trump may launch himself into the TV business, where no doubt nothing but the truth will be told.

There has been talk about it at Vanity Fair back in June. There was talk at Huffington Post a few days ago. Now it’s in The Economist. Continue reading Saturday salon 22/10

Trump an exemplar of American masculinity?

Donald Trump was born in June 1946, and would have turned 17 in 1963, the year Betty Friedan’s book The Feminine Mystique was published, which I gather fired up ‘second wave feminism’ in the US.

Back in early August, James Hamblin in The Atlantic identified Donald Trump as the climax of American masculinity.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, speaks during the final day of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Thursday, July 21, 2016. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, speaks during the final day of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Thursday, July 21, 2016. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

That referred to his aggressive style. Now Paul McGeough’s article ‘Formal’ vulgarian Donald Trump evokes Mad Men, Playboy and the Rat Pack looks at the origins of his attitude to women. Continue reading Trump an exemplar of American masculinity?

Trump isn’t teflon

trump_1-ne3maynv4cyddok0aii9oa_meltdown_250Three days ago Nate Silver published an analysis that broke up the polling along gender lines.

If only the men voted Trump would win 350 votes to 188. But if only women voted Clinton would win an astonishing 458 votes to 80.

That was before the second debate and the 2005 videotape had any impact. Clinton trailed Trump by 11 percentage points among men but led him by 33 points among women. Continue reading Trump isn’t teflon