1. Trump’s Plan B, was it Plan A?
It’s generally agreed, I think, that the moderator won the third presidential debate, with Hillary Clinton coming second.
Trump may not have lost, however, because there is talk that Trump may launch himself into the TV business, where no doubt nothing but the truth will be told.
I’ve even heard it said that his real plan was just that, run for nomination, come second, and then launch into TV.
So the more controversy the better. It’s the only sane explanation for how he’s been going on.
Meanwhile Bruce Schapiro told Phillip Adams that probably the most conflicted issue in the US at present was the argument over women’s reproduction rights.
Back when Clinton was up against Bernie Sanders they said she would struggle to get women to vote for her. Now the prospect of Donald Trump is going to bring them out in droves. That’s the Clinton plan, says Schapiro, and for now it seems to be working.
2. Abbott v Turnbull: open warfare on the floor of the House
Katherine Murphy says “Abbott had left Turnbull with absolutely no choice, given that he had indulged in a series of deliberate provocations for the best part of a fortnight.” Turnbull had to throw Abbott under the bus.
She says it’s not like Rudd v Gillard – a simple, brutal wrestle for power:
- The Coalition’s power struggle is between a conservative prime minister, who believes he has unfinished business and won’t leave the parliament, and a moderate prime minister, with diminished internal authority, who regularly has to sublimate his own views to cultivate some kind of internal stability and esprit de corps in order to manage a parliament with a one-seat majority.
So the Turnbull government remains riven by factional and philosophical differences.
I don’t know enough about guns or gun legislation to have an opinion about the Adler lever-action shotgun, but I do object to David Leyonhjelm or any other politician doing deals across issues. Each issue should be considered on its merits.
3. Turnbull in trouble in the polls
The last two Newspolls have had Labor ahead 52-48 in TPP terms, and Turnbull’s approval rating has dipped below Shorten’s to reach -25 as against Shorten’s -16.
In the Essential Report Labor’s lead in TPP terms has opened up to 53-47.
Also just under one-third (31%) of Australians are confident that the Turnbull Government will be able to get things done that the nation needs. Just 4% are ‘very confident’, while 58% are not confident, and 11% don’t know.
4. Hard Brexit
Treasury have told the British government that Brexit could cause GDP to fall between 5.4% and 9.5% pa over 15 years, and cost between £38bn and £66bn per year in tax revenue.
What we told you back in April was right, they said.
Meanwhile Angela Merkel intends taking a firm stance during negotiations over Britain’s exit from the EU, even if it comes at a short-term cost.
It seems the Germans won’t grant Britain an opt-out from any of the four freedoms – free movement of goods, services, capital and persons – as it could amount to the “beginning of the end” of the single market.
Francois Hollande joined a line of European leaders saying Britain must pay a heavy price, or the EU will fall apart.
Theresa May has said:
- she wanted to “operate” within the EU’s single market, yet end free movement of people and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
It’s looking like a bridge too far.
This quote perhaps tells you all you need to know about Brexiters.
Introduction to Saturday salon
Because of the way the blog currently presents posts on the home page I think it’s better to remove the introductory material to a different place. For new readers, here’s the rationale for this space.
An open thread where, at your leisure, you can discuss anything you like, well, within reason and the Comments Policy. Include here news and views, plus any notable personal experiences from the week and the weekend.
For climate topics please use the most recent Climate clippings.
The gentleman in the image is Voltaire, who for a time graced the court of Frederick II of Prussia, known as Frederick the Great. King Fred loved to talk about the universe and everything at the end of a day’s work. He also used the salons of Berlin to get feedback in the development of public policy.
Fred would only talk in French; he regarded German as barbaric. Here we’ll use English.
The thread will be a stoush-free zone. The Comments Policy says:
The aim [of this site] is to provide a venue for people to contribute and to engage in a civil and respectful manner.